In Kwara State, the “Otoge” (Enough is Enough) movement of 2019 was built on the premise of breaking a monolithic political structure. Yet, as the 2027 General Elections appear on the horizon, the All Progressives Congress (APC) seems to be building a new kind of monolith. The recent announcement that 105 House of Assembly aspirants have been “screened out” is the first major move in a high-stakes chess game for the soul of the State.
The Governor’s Shadow
While the screening committee speaks of “capacity” and “grassroots appeal,” political analysts in Ilorin see the invisible hand of the Executive. As Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq approaches the twilight of his second term, the battle for who succeeds him is already being fought in the trenches of the State House of Assembly.
By pruning 105 aspirants—many of whom are young, vocal, and independent-minded—the party leadership is effectively ensuring that the 2027 Assembly will be composed of “team players.” A loyal legislature is the ultimate insurance policy for any outgoing Governor looking to influence his successor or protect his legacy.
The “Purification” Argument
The party’s defenders argue that the screening is a necessary “purification.” Following the various factions that have plagued the Kwara APC—ranging from the “AA” camp to the “Loyalists”—the party is desperate for cohesion.
“The 2027 polls will be a referendum on the APC’s seven years in power,” says Dr. Kabir Lawal, a political scientist at the University of Ilorin. “By removing 105 potential ‘troublemakers’ now, the party is trying to avoid a repeat of the internal sabotage that nearly cost them seats in 2023. It’s a ruthless but perhaps necessary strategy for survival.”
The Risk of the “Third Force”
However, the risk of such a massive purge is the creation of a “disgruntled army.” If these 105 aspirants—many of whom have spent millions on consultations and ward-level mobilization—feel cheated, they become prime targets for recruitment by the PDP or emerging third-party movements.
Historically, Kwara politics is defined by the “rebound effect.” When a major party shuts its doors too tightly, the excluded elements often find a window elsewhere. Whether this “surgical screening” results in a more disciplined party or a fractured one remains the defining question for the Kwara APC as it marches toward 2027.
