The Federal Government breached its debt sustainability threshold and official borrowing ceiling after raising ₦12.62 trillion in fresh debt—exceeding its approved borrowing target of ₦7.83 trillion by ₦4.79 trillion (or 61.2 per cent).
According to the official Fourth Quarter and Consolidated Budget Implementation Report released by the Budget Office of the Federation, the surge in debt was triggered by an underperforming revenue base and a wider-than-expected fiscal deficit.
Key Financial Indicators & Breakdown
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Total Public Debt Stock: Pushed to ₦144.67 trillion by the end of December, driving Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio up to 61.22 per cent. This significantly breaches the nation’s self-imposed 40 per cent statutory ceiling as well as the 56 per cent benchmark for comparable emerging market economies.
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Widening Fiscal Deficit: Stood at ₦13.51 trillion—a 47.3 per cent expansion compared to the budgeted ₦9.18 trillion deficit.
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Revenue Shortfall: Federal Government retained revenue hit ₦20.98 trillion, falling 18.9 per cent short of the targeted ₦25.88 trillion. Despite a 68.1 per cent year-on-year growth compared to 2023, revenue proved insufficient to offset overall spending of ₦34.49 trillion.
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FISCAL DEFICIT & DEBT OVERRUN MATRIX │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ • Approved Borrowing Target : ₦7.83 Trillion │
│ │
│ • Actual Fresh Debt Raised : ₦12.62 Trillion (+61.2% overrun) │
│ │
│ • Consolidated Public Debt : ₦144.67 Trillion │
│ │
│ • Debt-to-GDP Ratio : 61.22% (Statutory Ceiling: 40%) │
│ │
│ • Overall Fiscal Deficit : ₦13.51 Trillion │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
(Sources: Budget Office of the Federation & Debt Management Office Report)
Revenue Underperformance Drives Squeeze
The Budget Office noted that while total government expenditure was kept relatively close to approval thresholds (1.6 per cent below the budget ceiling), non-oil and oil revenue collections failed to hit projected benchmarks.
The resulting shortfall forced reliance on domestic and external debt markets to bridge funding gaps for recurrent non-debt allocations and critical infrastructure projects.
Ayodele Quadri
Correspondent
