ABUJA — The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its highly anticipated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter of 2026 on Monday, revealing a real-term economic expansion of 3.89% year-on-year.
This latest performance represents a notable acceleration in economic momentum, outperforming the 3.13% growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The data indicates that the federal government’s recent structural reforms are beginning to yield tangible stability across critical sectors of the domestic economy.
According to the NBS report, aggregate GDP for the quarter under review stood at N110,786,347.01 million in nominal terms, reflecting the evolving price dynamics and scaling productivity of the country’s industrial base.
Agriculture and Services Anchor National Growth
The standout performer of the quarter was the agricultural sector, which achieved a significant turnaround by posting a real growth rate of 3.15%. This marks a substantial, fundamental recovery from the near-stagnant growth of 0.07% recorded in Q1 2025, which was heavily weighed down by insecurity and supply-chain disruptions.
Concurrently, the services sector maintained its position as the primary engine of the Nigerian economy. Growing at 4.31% in real terms, services accounted for a dominant 57.73% share of the aggregate aggregate GDP, up slightly from the 57.50% recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
Industrial output also showed marginal gains, moving to 3.50% from the 3.42% recorded in the previous year’s matching period, driven largely by improvements in processing capabilities and local manufacturing corridors.
The Oil and Non-Oil Sector Disconnect
A granular breakdown of the country’s revenue pillars highlights a continuing divergence between the oil and non-oil sectors. The non-oil sector grew by 3.94% in real terms during Q1 2026, outstripping its 2025 performance of 3.19%. In real terms, non-oil activities contributed a massive 96.08% to the aggregate national output.
In contrast, the oil sector’s growth dynamics presented a more volatile picture. While the sector grew by 2.57% year-on-year—an improvement over the 1.87% recorded in Q1 2025—it suffered a steep deceleration when measured against the final quarter of 2025, plunging by 4.22% percentage points from the 6.79% growth recorded in Q4 2025.
The sector’s contribution to the overall real GDP dropped fractionally to 3.92% from 3.97% in the previous year.
[Q1 2026 Sectoral Real Growth Rates]
│
┌─────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────┐
▼ ▼ ▼
[Agriculture] [Services] [Oil Sector]
3.15% 4.31% 2.57%
(Up from 0.07% (Stable driver of (Down from 6.79%
in Q1 2025) aggregate output) in Q4 2025)
Policy Implications and Fiscal Outlook
Central Bank officials and Ministry of Finance planners have reportedly welcomed the data as validation of their current monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation strategies. Speaking to reporters at the Central Bank headquarters following the release, a senior analyst noted that the recovery in agriculture is particularly vital for dampening the structural inflation that has historically plagued the domestic food market.
With the next fiscal review scheduled ahead of the mid-year mark, policymakers will look to sustain this 3.89% trajectory by lowering barriers to credit for industrial processors and consolidating security gains in the country’s middle-belt agricultural regions.
