A gathering storm of resistance is mounting across the nineteen northern states following reports of a strategic alliance between the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) flagbearer in the 2023 elections, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) national leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, ahead of the 2027 presidential poll.
High-level stakeholders, elder statesmen, and regional political strategists meeting in Kaduna and Abuja over the weekend have warned that rather than providing a formidable alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), a joint Atiku-Kwankwaso ticket or coalition risks triggering an unprecedented fragmentation of the northern voting bloc.
The Math of Division
The crux of the stakeholders’ concern lies in the deeply entrenched, localized loyalties both leaders command across the North. While Atiku retains a broad traditional base across the Northeast and parts of the North-Central, Kwankwaso holds a fiercely loyal, cult-like following through the Kwankwasiyya movement, primarily centered in Kano and spreading across the Northwest.
Speaking to The National Daily Trust on the condition of anonymity, a prominent member of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) stated that the region cannot afford a divided house in 2027.
“If Atiku and Kwankwaso run on a joint platform, or even if they form an alliance where one steps down for the other, they are miscalculating the loyalty of the core northern voter,” the statesman noted. “Kwankwaso’s supporters are driven by an intense ideological zeal that does not automatically transfer to Atiku. Conversely, Atiku’s mainstream conservative base views the Kwankwasiyya movement as too radical. Instead of a consolidated vote, we are looking at an aggressive split that will inevitably hand a clear path to victory to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”
Lessons from 2023
The stakeholders pointed back to the arithmetic of the 2023 general elections as a cautionary tale. In that cycle, the fragmentation of the opposition was the primary catalyst for the APC’s victory.
Data analyzed by regional strategists reveals a stark reality:
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Atiku Abubakar (PDP): Garnered 6,984,520 votes globally, dominating parts of the North.
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Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP): Secured 1,496,687 votes, sweeping Kano State with a massive margin.
“Had those votes been seamlessly united under a single, universally accepted northern candidate in 2023, the dynamic would be completely different today,” said Dr. Kabir Bello, a political scientist at the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. “But politics is not simple mathematics. You cannot just add Kwankwaso’s 1.5 million to Atiku’s 7 million. The ideological friction between the two camps is immense. A forced marriage at the top will cause apathy and rebellion at the grassroots, scattering northern votes across multiple lines.”
The Shadow of the Incumbency Factor
Beyond the internal dynamics of the North, stakeholders are acutely aware of the power of presidential incumbency. The Tinubu administration has spent the last three years consolidating its hold on power, building strategic bridges into the North-Central and securing key alliances with non-aligned northern governors.
Insiders within the progressive camp argue that the ruling APC is quietly praying for the Atiku-Kwankwaso alliance to materialize. “A polarized North is exactly what the southwest-led APC needs,” an Abuja-based party strategist admitted. “When two bulls from the same region fight for the same pasture, the farmer takes the land.”
As the discussions continue behind closed doors, northern elders are reportedly planning a peace and unity summit to intervene. The goal is to prevent a scenario where regional political ambitions inadvertently diminish the North’s collective bargaining chip on the national stage.
